Global PC shipments are on course for their sharpest single-year decline in recent memory, with forecasters warning of a supply crisis that will reshape the market for years. IDC now expects worldwide PC shipments to fall 11.3% in 2026, dropping from 284.7 million units in 2025 to just 252.53 million units — a loss of more than 32 million devices in a single year. The cause is a severe shortage of memory and storage components that is squeezing manufacturers, inflating prices, and pushing millions of buyers out of the market entirely.
TL;DR: Global PC shipments are forecast to fall between 11% and 12% in 2026, driven by memory shortages that could push memory prices up at least 60% in Q1 2026. Budget PCs under $500 face a 28% decline. Buyers who need a new machine soon should act before prices climb further.
How bad is the 2026 PC market decline?
The decline is severe — and the forecasts have been getting worse fast. IDC’s November 2025 projection put the 2026 drop at just 2.4%. By January 2026, that figure had been revised to 8.9%. The current estimate of 11.3% represents a dramatic reassessment driven by accelerating component shortages. Omdia is even more pessimistic, forecasting a 12% decline to 245 million units globally.
To put that in context, 2025 was actually a strong year for PC sales, with shipments rising 9.6% from 2024 levels. The swing from nearly 10% growth to over 11% contraction in a single year is the kind of reversal that sends shockwaves through the entire supply chain — from component makers to retail shelves. The speed of the forecast revision alone tells you how quickly conditions deteriorated.
Tablet shipments are also caught in the same current, with IDC projecting a 7.6% decline from 151.9 million to 140.36 million units in 2026. This is not a PC-specific problem. It is a component crisis with broad reach.
Why are memory shortages causing global PC shipments to collapse?
Memory prices are the core driver. Omdia forecasts a minimum 60% rise in memory prices in Q1 2026 alone, a spike severe enough to make budget PC production economically unviable for many manufacturers. When the cost of a critical component jumps that sharply, the math on low-margin entry-level devices stops working.
IDC expects average PC prices to jump up to 8% across the board in 2026. That might sound manageable in isolation, but layered on top of existing cost pressures and a global consumer base already stretched thin, it translates directly into fewer units sold. The supply constraints are not expected to ease quickly — forecasters warn that memory shortages will limit production well into 2027.
There is a grim paradox at the heart of this story. Even as unit shipments fall sharply, the PC market’s total revenue is expected to increase 1.6% to $274 billion in 2026. Fewer PCs are being sold, but each one costs more. The industry makes roughly the same money while millions of consumers go without upgrades they needed.
Which PC buyers are most exposed to the global PC shipments crisis?
Budget buyers face the worst of it. PCs priced under $500 are forecast to decline 28%, falling to approximately 62.1 million units in 2026. That segment — the one most relied upon by students, first-time buyers, and cost-conscious households across emerging markets — is effectively being squeezed out of existence. By 2028, the entry-level PC market is projected to disappear entirely.
High-end machines priced above $900 are far better positioned, with forecasters suggesting modest growth remains possible in that segment. This mirrors a pattern seen across consumer electronics during supply crunches: premium products survive because manufacturers can absorb cost increases while maintaining margins. Budget lines get cut first.
Windows PCs bear the brunt of the volume decline, forecast to drop 12% and still accounting for 83% of all shipments. That dominance means the Windows ecosystem is where the affordability crisis will be felt most acutely by everyday users worldwide.
Should you buy a PC now before prices rise further?
If you are in the market for a new PC — especially a budget or mid-range machine — the case for buying sooner rather than later is real. Memory prices are already rising, and IDC’s forecast of up to 8% average price increases means the device you are looking at today is likely cheaper than it will be in six months. Waiting for a deal that never comes is a real risk in this environment.
That said, the picture is not uniform. High-end machines are less exposed to the worst price spikes, and anyone targeting the premium segment has more breathing room. The urgency is concentrated at the sub-$500 end, where availability and affordability are both deteriorating simultaneously.
Price relief is not coming quickly. Forecasters anticipate some easing beginning in 2028, but warn that prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels. The market is resetting to a structurally higher baseline — the old normal is gone.
Is the PC market going to recover after 2026?
Recovery is possible but gradual. The memory shortage is expected to constrain production well into 2027, and any meaningful price easing is a 2028 story at the earliest. Even then, analysts do not expect a return to 2025 pricing levels. The market is moving toward higher average selling prices as its new structural reality.
The entry-level segment faces the bleakest long-term outlook. If the projection of that segment disappearing by 2028 proves accurate, the PC market will look fundamentally different in three years — smaller in unit terms, more expensive on average, and far less accessible to buyers on tight budgets.
How does the tablet market compare to the PC decline?
Tablets are also declining, but less severely. IDC forecasts a 7.6% drop in tablet shipments in 2026, compared to the 11-12% fall projected for PCs. The same memory and storage shortages are at play, but tablets have a different cost structure and use-case profile that gives them slightly more insulation from the worst of the component crunch.
What is causing memory prices to rise so sharply in 2026?
The shortage stems from supply chain constraints that are limiting production of DRAM and NAND flash memory, the components used in virtually every PC and tablet. Omdia forecasts a minimum 60% rise in memory prices in Q1 2026. These constraints are not expected to resolve quickly, with production limitations forecast to persist well into 2027. The Middle East conflict introduces additional uncertainty for international transportation and regional supply chains, though the full impact remains difficult to quantify.
The bottom line is stark. Global PC shipments are heading into their worst year in recent history, driven by a memory crisis that punishes budget buyers hardest and shows no signs of quick resolution. If you need a new PC, the window to buy at current prices is closing. If you can wait until 2028, you might see some relief — but do not expect a return to what affordable once meant.
Edited by the All Things Geek team.
Source: TechRadar
